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hotline69   
Sep 15, 2011

Economics and Financial Economics



Masters Level Dissertation

(Course): Economics and Financial Economics
(Module):
12000 words

1. Outline and Introduction - 3 AUG
2. Literature Review & Methodology - 11 AUG
3. All done - 21 AUG

Topic: The Monetary Policy determinants on the Unemployment in the UK...Use Structual VAR approach

- Introduction
- Literature review : include and compare different models
- Methodology : probably VAR approach
Collect data (UK)
Run data (eg: use Eviews/ Stata software)
Show result and interpret (include figures and graphs)
- Robustness: other variables
- Conclusion
- Reference: Harvard system

>>>>>>>>

Provisional Brief Outline:

1. Introduction

2. Literature Review: include and compare different theories and models (details in the file guidelines of dissertation)

3. Model: collect different models, choose the model, identify model... Real business cycle, Keynesian model, classic model...

4. Data: Collect data (UK) eg: Recourse IMF, National Statistics...

5. Methodology: probably VAR approach

6. Result: Run data (eg: use Eviews/ Stata software)
Show result and interpret (include figures and graphs)
7. Robustness: other variables and find sth which didn't write or use in the previous part...
8. Conclusion
9. Reference: Harvard System

Note:
1. Resource: should include the resource of data, graphs, regression output and other references.
2. Acknowledge: appreciate if author can provide some brief procedures of running data by economics software, since I need to discuss with supervisor.

<<<<<<

The monetary Policy Determinants on the Unemployment in the United Kingdom
Contents
Chapter One: Introduction 1
1.1 Research Background 1
1.2 Research Aims and Objectives 3
1.3 Significance of the research paper 3
1.3 Research Questions 4
Chapter Two: Literature Review 6
Chapter Three: Research Methodology 17
3.1 Research Design 17
3.2 Primary Data Collection Method 17
3.2.1 Analysis through the Primary Data 18
3.2.1a General form of the Equation 18
3.2.1b Hypothesis 20
3.2.1c Decision Rule 20
3.2.1d Expected Results 20
3.3 Secondary Data Collection 21
3.3.1 Source of Secondary Data 22
3.4 Ethical Issues taken Into Account 22
3.5 Reliability Credibility and Generalizability of the Research Paper 22
Chapter Four: Data Analysis 25
Regression Analysis: Unemployment versus change in RPI, Bank Interest, m4 25
Regression Analysis: Change in Unemployment versus m4 31
Regression Analysis: Unemployment versus m4 31
Regression Analysis: m4 versus Bank Interest rates, RPI 32
Regression Analysis: Bank Interest rates versus m4 32
Chapter Five: Conclusion 34

Chapter One: Introduction

1.1 Research Background.

Monetary PolicyBBC News (2011) reported that unemployment in the United Kingdom as of May 2011 stood at 2.45 million people, as calculated by the Office of national statistics. Out of a 62, 262, 000 population, this number of people basically showed that around 7.7% of the population in the United Kingdom faces the wrath of unemployment (Office of national Statistics, 2011). With the constant increase in the cost of living in the country and especially an increase in the world food and energy prices, this figure basically shows that around 8% of the population in the United Kingdom is in serious financial and economic trouble.

A portion of credit for these statistics goes to the housing sector of the United States, which led to a major financial and credit crunch internationally. Financial experts, consultants, equity holders and other investors, who had their money in the apparent blossoming housing and manufacturing sector of the United States, were forced to withdraw their money, hence further aggravating the problem. The result for the situation is very well known by all; the occurrence of Great Recession and people actually stating that everything felt like the recession in 1980s.

It is understandable, that efficient management of an entity is not always the key for the success and growth of it and that more often than a person would like it, external factor influence and actually determine the fate of the entity. When one is talking about an entire economy, concerned and affected by an entire meshwork of financial, economic, political and social systems the level of effect that external factors have is amazingly high. One of the reasons for the fact being true then is fairly simple but highly effective. It deals with the fact that organizations, trading and financial processes are more globally integrated today than ever. This being true has its perks such as a larger global market for the organizations, more resources to be exploited and then a better diversification of risks, but the same process is not free of the threats and challenges that it serves to the users. A problem in one system in one location, through the ripple effect influences the fate and success of other systems across the globe (whether in a positive manner or negative).

It has been achieved that an economy is highly affected by the external factors. But as mentioned above, efficient management of the economy is a factor of no less importance. Moreover, efficient management, altered as per requirement under the light of external factors can sometimes very well shield the entity from greater damage. This established, the point of high unemployment in the United Kingdom, affecting and threatening the welfare of many people in the country is brought into focus again. The issue that will be raised under the light of the discussion above is the question as to how my unemployment in the country is actually credible to the accounts of management of the economy.

More simply said, the question that is asked is whether this high rate of unemployment is the result of some mismanagement, or miscalculation of the government or the policy makers of the United Kingdom.

Considering the vastness of the issue because of a number of factors and aspects of management, one chosen for the purpose of this paper is the monetary management of the United Kingdom (the monetary policy).

The study of economics throughout its stretch (and by all almost all schools of thought of economics) emphasizes on the importance of monetary policy of an economy and the resulting effects that it has on the other variable of the economy. The monetary policy of an economy, very often leads to an alteration of the aggregate demand in an economy, thus shifting the equilibrium of the country to a different (higher or lower) output level. A different output level then means a different rate of unemployment in the country. Thus, taking out all other variable from in between, monetary policy has the power to influence the unemployment rates in the country.

The clichéd definition of inflation "too much money chasing too few goods", as noted by Mankiw (2008) then, also concerns the monetary policy. Again, through the Phillips curve, the fact that there is a significant relationship between unemployment and inflation is very much visible and can be analyzed and broken down into various elements for study. So basically, the issue raised is that monetary policy (both as a whole and as broken down into various elements) has a strong role to play in the determination of unemployment rates (and employment opportunities as a reciprocal in the country).

This paper then is going to be focusing on precisely this issue but as studied for the case of the United Kingdom. The following sections will provide a guideline to the orientation of the research paper in terms of the aims and objectives, the significance of the research paper along with its scope and the research questions.

1.2 Research Aims and Objectives

The basic aim of constructing this research paper is to understand how much of the unemployment threat to the lives of the people and the welfare of the overall economy is credible to the account of monetary policy makers in the country and to find out how, if differently handled, the United Kingdom's economy would be in a different position. Through a sound review of academic literature, this research paper is aimed at finding out the theoretical underpinnings of unemployment, monetary policy and their relation. And finally, this research paper is aimed at reaching a soundly, empirically supported conclusion and providing subjective but worthy recommendations for the matter.

Furthermore, the objective for the creation of this research paper is to provide some substantial input in the academic and research world and to be able to return in the arena of academic literature at least some portion of what has been taken in the first place throughout the course of studying.

1.3 Significance of the research paper

The significance of monetary policy for an economy has been under a lot of debate with the monetarist school of thought arguing in favor of it and the classical school of thought fighting against the system. Nonetheless, the monetary policy is a very important and high sought after tool for the governments and policymakers of almost all the economies of the world. The basic functions of monetary policy and how important the levels of money are have been explained in the literature review of this paper. The levels of money in the economy have a number of implications for the overall system and the resulting management that is put into application for the economy. One important relationship, as mentioned in the section above is that of the monetary policy and rate of unemployment in an economy. That relationship then again, is precisely the reason for the creation of this research paper. The research paper is significant in crafting out and discussing the relationship between the monetary policy and unemployment. As many econometrics functions, this relationship is simultaneous and endogenous in nature and one variable in actually linking with a number of other equations in the system. This paper is going to find out most of the variables in that system and analyze their position and effect on the wider economy.

Secondly, the paper is focusing on one of the strongest and the most well managed economies of the world; United Kingdom. Analysis of this economy will not only be useful for the policy makers of the United Kingdom themselves, but also those of the other countries seeking to find an optimal point of use of monetary policy in regards to the effect it has on the other important variables in the country.

Finally, this research paper is important because it is going to present a snapshot of the United Kingdom and a primary, empirical analysis is being done in this paper to reach a conclusion as to what is the effect of the monetary policy on the rates of unemployment in the economy and especially in the United Kingdom. Through the data provided to the public by the office of national statistics, the regression analysis between the variables described later in the paper makes this paper significant both in theory and as an instrument for application.

1.3 Research Questions

It has been noted that the research question in a research paper actually provide dimension and boundary to the analysis of the research paper and makes sure that the information that it presents does not become irrelevant

.
After roughly going through the literature present on the topic consideration, the following research questions have been crafted out to provide analysis on.

i) What are the functions of the monetary policy in an economy and how important is its role in the stability and growth of the economy?

ii) What is the significance of monetary policy in the United Kingdom?
iii) What is the trend and situation of unemployment in the United Kingdom?
iv) In theory, what is the relationship between unemployment and monetary policy and what other variables are involved in the process?
v) What is the relationship between unemployment and monetary policy in the United Kingdom and what other variables are involved in the process that is found to exist?

Chapter Two: Literature Review

This section of the paper is going to present the secondary findings of the data collected. Secondary data is considered to important because it not only helps the research gather more ideas and information about the topic under consideration but also enables him or her to avoid any duplication of a previously done study. The strategy for the creation of this literature review section will be to first present theory on the matter of unemployment to reflect the enormity of the issue that it is for the economies of today. Next, this section is going to present theory on the matter of monetary policy, its constituents, its supporters and its base theory, the limitations of its use and, the disadvantages of its use. The step of the literature review is going to be to present the theories and researches on the alleged relationship between monetary theory and unemployment rate in the country. This part of the section will be further divided into two parts with the first part focusing on the general monetary policy and unemployment relationship and the second focusing on the same but from the perspective of the United Kingdom, since the scope of this paper is limited to United Kingdom.

It is however important to mention here before the actual review begins, that this section is only going to present the theory and the academic researches. The analysis of them is going to be done in the data analysis section of the paper along with the results of the primary findings.

2.1 Unemployment

To start with, Layard et al (1991) notes an interesting fact in regards to the rate of unemployment existing in a country. They say,

"The long run equilibrium level of unemployment is affected, first, by any variable which influences the ease with which unemployed individuals can be matched to available job vacancies and, second, by any variable which tends to raise wages in a direct fashion despite excess supply in the labor market."

Layard et al (1991) further take this point to study the various factors that fall into these two categories that affect unemployment equilibrium in the long run. It has been studied that the variables forming the part of the first variable fall actually on the unemployment/vacancy locus or better known as the Beveridge Curve and therefore can be seen to have a direct effect on the rate of unemployment prevailing in the country. The second set of variables on the other hand does not depict an explicit impact on the rate of unemployment and do so in an indirect manner. For studying the impact on the unemployment rate, the shift or the movement of the Bevridge curve, as pointed out by Layard et al (1991) is a sufficient but not a necessary condition.

The factors included in the direct variables affecting unemployment are as following.

The first one is the unemployment benefit system which seriously influences the keenness of the unemployed masses to try out for jobs and therefore fill vacancies. In the system then, the important aspects are i) the level of benefits, ii) the coverage of the benefits, iii) the length of time for which the benefit is made available to an individual and finally, the strictness in the implementation of the system.

Secondly, the rise in the real interest rate of a country also promotes the level of unemployment by actually raising the returns on non human wealth.

Thirdly, the employment protection laws tend to make the business organization more cautious about filling vacancies, thus resulting in a slowing down of the speed at which the unemployed move in work. In regards to this, Layard et al (1991) say that,

"However, the mechanism here is not clear cut. For example, the introduction of employment protection laws often leads to an increased professionalization of the personnel function within firms, as was the case in Britain in the 1970s."

And finally, the factor shifting the Beveridge Curve is the barriers to geographical or occupational mobility.

On the other hand, the factors which have direct impact on wages are the levels of union power in wage bargain, union coverage in the industry or in the labor market, the level of coordination of wage bargains and the degree of competition in the product market. Next, the real wage resistance, labor taxes and change in trend productivity growth happen to affect the rate of unemployment is an economy (Layard et al 1991).

This above however studied however focused upon some of the factors that shift the rate of unemployment from a sociological or politically influenced perspective. Before moving forward, it is important to define the stock of unemployment in an economy. Knight (1987) says that,

"From a theoretical point of view, the stock of unemployment in an economy at a particular moment in time is most easily defined as Ut = Lt - Et where,

Ut is the number unemployed
Lt is the total labor force
Et is the number of people employed"

Manipulating the above equation, the percentage of people unemployed in an economy can be written as Ut/ Lt = (1 - Et/ Lt) * 100 = Ut

Furthermore, Knight (1987) focuses on the point that greater the stock of unemployment in an economy, the greater the resulting underutilization of labor in the economy. The calculation of the extent to which the resources of an economy are underutilized is one of the most important considerations in for the overall management of an economy (Knight, 1987). The labor force of an economy is made up of the people, willing and able to work. Similarly, those unemployed have also been divided into various categories depending on how and why they are unemployed. These categories are made up of i) frictionally unemployed, ii) discouraged workers, iii) those not able to work.

Pissarides (2000) studies the trade in the labor market and studies that the central idea of the model that he represents is that the trade in the labor market is a decentralized economic activity. This explanation of trade being a decentralized or non trivial economic activity is because heterogeneities, frictions and information imperfections exist in the market and thus, to capture the idea of creation of jobs, both the producers and buyers of jobs face un coordination, time consumption and cost. Pissarides (2000) says that the labor market movements can be explained like various other aggregate functions and that the usefulness of the matching function that has been created depends on the empirical viability of the success of capturing the salient features of exchange in the labor market.

However, Pedersen (1985) considers the worth of the market clearing model of labor itself and questions whether the fluctuations in the rate of unemployment can actually be explained by the model. The model focused upon by Pedersen (1985) is the competitive supply and demand model of equilibrium of labor market and says that both the factors depend on the real wage and technological coefficients. It has been noted that,

"if there is complete certainty about prices and wages, changes in the aggregate demand cannot have an effect on unemployment. Prices should clear the output market and real wages should not be affected by demand. Supply shocks, like changes in raw material prices or general productivity changes, may have some effect on unemployment but only if they are expected to be temporary. Supply shocks require a change in the market clearing wage since they shift the demand curve for labor. A permanent shock shifts the demand curve permanently and requires a permanent change in the real wage."

About the enormity of the problem that unemployment actually is especially for the policy makers and those politician depending upon the reliability of those policy makers, Worswick (1991) notes that among the various factors that brought down the shift from the Conservative to the Labour during the second world war, persistent unemployment of the interwar years (rarely less than 10 percent and rising up to 20 percent in the early 1930s) was one of the most significant reasons.

Fineman (1987) then gives a turn to the direction of attention and studies the unemployed rather than the phenomenon of unemployment itself. Even though the focus of this paper is majorly on the phenomenon of unemployment, it is considered useful to mention briefly how the people affected by this play the game and why. These considerations by the author regard the problems that people face when they seek meaning out of their lives, the level of functioning of the government agencies, the social tensions that exist and the effect that unemployment has on the social, economic and personal life of both the employed and the unemployed.

2.2 Monetary Policy

As far as scientific base for the monetary policy is concerned, the credit goes to the monetary theory (Bofinger, Reischle and Schachter, 2001) and focuses upon the policies that the policy makers should pursue for their daily work as well as for the design of new institutional solutions.

Before however, monetary theory and monetary policy are discussed any further, it is important to define what money in terms of economics actually is so really understand what underpinnings the change in the monetary policy on an economy really holds. Bofinger, Reischle and Schachter (2001) first study the microeconomic approach of the definition of the money and say that down to the basics, it is the currency in circulation which people can use as a store of value, a medium of exchange and a unit of measurement.

Now when the word money is said, paper bills come into the mind of a person or probably a bunch of gold coins. However as has been noted, anything that fulfils the functions of the money can be used as a perfect substitute for currency (C). The biggest example especially from the perspective of the commercial banks, reserves that are held by these banks hold with the central bank (R). The total of reserves and currency makes up the monetary base (B) (Bofinger, Reischle and Schachter, 2001). As the authors note it, there are many economists who actually consider the monetary base of an economy to be the most relevant and thus useful concept of money because of its exogenous nature.

Secondly, in the perspective of the private non banks, a close substitute of money in circulation is the sight deposits (D), or the currency that is achieved in hand with very low or negligible cost of transaction. The addition of the currency in circulation and the sight deposits that makes up the second most important concept of money, M1.

"In monetary policy the money stock M1 is regarded as an important indicator, but most central banks look also at more broadly defined aggregates, which are labeled M2, M3 or even M4. The European Central Bank uses a reference value for the money stock M3 as a pillar of its stability oriented monetary policy. The ECB defines these broader aggregates as follows:

M2= M1 + deposits with agreed maturity of up to 2 years + deposits redeemable at notice up to three months.

M3= M2 + repurchase agreements + money market fund shares/unites and money market paper + debt securities issued with maturity up to 2 years."

Mankiw (1997) studies that the goals of monetary policy of keeping the inflation rate in the economy low and thus the prices stable and further to keep the gap between the actual and the real Gross Domestic Product as small as possible are widely agreed and can be achieved by limiting the rate of growth of M2 and M3 (the broader money aggregates over a long enough period of time. Furthermore, Mankiw (1997) also notes the different approaches to the monetary policy and says that the important variables in dealing with the supply of money in the economy are the monetary aggregates themselves, interest rates and the exchange rate. The first as is noted is the judgmental eclecticism and deals with the control of the volume of bank reserves by open market sales of treasury securities. "In recent years, the volume of such sales has been adjusted to target the value of the federal funds interest rate. Thus, for the time intervals up to several weeks, any disturbance in the statistical relation between the federal funds rate and bank reserves (that is, in the banking system's bi variate demand function for reserves) induces the Federal Reserve to alter reserves in order to maintain the desired level of Federal Funds rate."

As far as matching the growth of the money supply in the economy with the growth in other economic factors such as population, GDP and business operations, it has been noted that Milton Friedman's proposal for the monetary policy was a constant growth of money supply in the economy (Mankiw, 1997). "Setting the constant growth rate of money equal to the expected growth of potential GDP minus the expected rate of increase of velocity implies a zero expected rate of inflation."

The third alternative for managing the monetary policy as proposed by McCallum (1988) and Taylor (1985) proposes and optimal rule for using the monetary policy to target nominal GDP and a simple partial adjustment rule that approximates the effect of the optimal rule. The usefulness of this monetary targeting rule is found in the more satisfactory economic performance (measured through the rate of inflation and stability of nominal GDP growth) than achieved through both eclectic judgmentalism and passive policy of constant M2 growth.

Mishkins (2007) studies that over the past three decades, there has been an extraordinary transformation in the use and behavior of monetary policy and the answer is provided through the ideas of i) the long run tradeoff between the level of employment and inflation, ii) the expectations that are critical to monetary outcomes, iii) high costs of inflation to the overall economy, iv) the subjugation of the monetary policy to the problem of time inconsistency, v) the level of independence of the central bank and finally vi) the a strong nominal anchor being key to producing good monetary policy outcomes.

A number of long term relationships have been found to exist through research between the money supply in the economy and other economic factors (Walsh, 2003). Firstly it has been found that correlation exists between inflation and the growth rate of money supply is almost 1 (varying between 0.92 and 0.96, depending on the definition of the money aggregate used by the central bank) meaning that a rise in the money supply would almost definitely raise inflation in the economy. In regards to the topic of this paper, Walsh (2003) notes an interesting thing and study that through empirical evidence, there has found to exist no relationship between money supply and real output. "Thus, there are countries with low output growth and low money growth and inflation, and countries with low output growth and high money growth and inflation and countries with every other combination as well."

Artus, Barroux and Applied Econometrics Association (1990) study that when pursuing a monetary policy that governments and the central banks focus on a number of variables. The variable that the government and the central banks seek to stabilize are known as the targets. Their midterm equilibrium values that is, the trend path values are also often called targets. It has been noted however, that these targets should definitely be selected and are the growth rate of gross domestic product, the rate inflation and the level of exchange rate. A number of tradeoffs with respect to these targets are the following. "A) inflation increase if the growth rate of Gross Domestic Product increases, the level of the exchange rate held constant, b) the level of the exchange rate decrease when the rate of inflation increase the growth rate held constant and C) the level of the exchange rate increases when the growth rate of GDP increase, the rate of inflation held constant. As a matter of fact, there exist only two independent targets (e.g. the growth rate of Gross Domestic Product and the level of the exchange rate."

However, Solow and Taylor (1999) note that merely projecting the point that monetary policy influences inflation and real economic outcomes means that a person is actually ignoring the problem of two way interaction between the monetary policy and economic behavior and thus, one of the core reasons as to why the issue of management of the monetary policy and thus the money supply in the economy is under constant evolution is because difficulty still faces the policy makers and the no way guarantees economic performance and growth in the long run. As Gali (2008) says then, the area of monetary economics has been among the most fruitful research areas within macroeconomic and the researchers to understand the relationship between monetary policy, inflation and the business cycle has led to the development of a framework known to be the new Keynesian model which is currently in application for the management of the monetary policy.

Cencini and Baranzini (1996) say that if the market mechanism work perfectly and with full information in the society, there would be no undesired unemployment. The point of this being that it is actually the lack of information between the various players of the economy that gives rise to the issue of unemployment. As far as interest rate is concerned, it has been noted that interest rates actually have a deflationary effect on the economy. They reduce the incentive that the organization has for producing and thus, unless a process of over accumulation of capital is achieved, it is impossible to avoid unemployment in the economy. "In order words, the equality between total supply and total demand is compatible with any level of production and therefore, also with any level of employment."

Furthermore as Sloman (2004) points out, in a simple Keynesian model, GDP is assumed at its maximum levels and thus, it is one of the basic assumptions of the full employment model that the economy is operating at the natural rate of unemployment. The deviations from this are described by Keynes as the inflationary and deflationary models. In the inflationary models, the inflation rate goes up and the GDP actually increases the full employment GDP meaning that the economy is actually working beyond its capability. On the other hand, in a deflationary gap, the economy is actually behind the full employment GDP meaning that some of the resources of the economy are underutilized and thus not properly managed.

The followers of the school Rational Expectations or the new classical school of thought considers actually that there exists no tradeoff between the unemployment rates and the inflation rates in an economy. These arguments that they make are based in the following two assumptions:

i) Prices and wage rates are flexible and thus markets clear very rapidly. This means that there will be no disequilibrium unemployment, even in the short run. All unemployment will be equilibrium unemployment or voluntary unemployment.

ii) Expectations are rational but are based on imperfect information for the external sources.

The new classical believers argue that the past trends are of no use to the economy for analysis and policy recommendations and therefore, they base their analysis on the current state of economy and the current information about the current policies that the people have. People looking at a variety of this information and then using their own sense and strength of reasoning, assess the future on the basis of the information available to them. However, these predictions and the judgments of the economy based on them can very often go wrong.

"If the government raises aggregate demand in an attempt to reduce the rate of unemployment, people will anticipate that this will lead to higher prices and wages, and that there will be no effect on the output and unemployment. If their expectations of higher inflation are correct this will thus fully absorb the increase in nominal aggregate demand such that there will have been no increase in the real demand at all. Firms will not produce anymore output or employ any more people...Output and employment will only rise therefore if people make error in their predictions."(Sloman, 2004)

Dransfield and Dransfield (2003) note Friedman to say that money supply altered in the short run has a destabilizing effect on the economy. "if the central bank increases the money supply during a depression, thus will take time to have an effect on economic activity and prices."

It has further been noted by the authors that there is a particular rate of unemployment known as the natural rate of unemployment which is actually consistent with the rates of inflation prevailing in the economy and that any deviation from that rate of inflation will actually disturb the stability of the inflation trend in the economy. "If the government tries to buy the rate of unemployment by increasing inflation, this will only lead to increasing levels of inflation, which will eventually become unsustainable."

According to Friedman (Dransfield and Dransfield, 2003), people are more concerned, about the real wage than the nominal wage and thus they are concerned about wage negotiation. Furthermore according to the Phillips curve, there is a tradeoff between the unemployment rate and the inflation rate in an economy.

Carlberg (2009) notes that interaction between the European central bank and the government and says that an increase in the European money supply would end up lowering the rate of unemployment in the region. On the other hand however it would give rise to inflation. Government purchases on the other hand lower the rate of unemployment in the region and hand in hand raise the rate of inflation. The effect between the two is actually completely balanced with 1 percentage rise and fall in each. Calberg (2009) further notes that that the target of the European Central banks is usually to pursue zero inflation in the economy and that the instrument that they use for this purpose is the money supply and if the target that the European governments are pursuing is zero unemployment rates in the region, then the instrument that the government departments would chose would be government purchases. Both of them have the same and equal effect on the rates of inflation and the unemployment and by dividing this responsibility of managing unemployment and inflation rates, the two institutes actually check a check on the other and a balance of their performance and strategies. These organizations then fall into a number of cooperative strategies with the final aim of providing the maximum welfare to the public and making the economy as stable as possible.

Chapter Three: Research Methodology

3.1 Research Design

There is no denying the fact that the method with which a research is carried out has a very significant influence on the quality of the resulting research paper, the results of the research itself in terms of their orientation, analysis and quality. Keeping that into account, the research methodology for this paper has been carefully designed and structured so as to achieve the best possible analysis for the topic under consideration.

The research paper followed a combination of secondary and primary data collection techniques to reach the conclusion and a sound analysis from both dimensions. This allowed the researcher to look into the problem of monetary policy and its effects on the unemployment rates through i) the expert opinion presented in the literature available on the areas and ii) the statistical relationship found between the two variables. Following this method for conduction of research, the two types of findings supported each other and overall the research proved to be a sound one.

The following sections are going to shed light on the details of research methodology of this paper, the resulting and expected reliability and credibility of the paper and the limitations faced during the conduction of the paper and how the paper is limited in explaining what it is aiming of finding out.

3.2 Primary Data Collection Method

The primary data collection was gathered with the aim of statistically linking the variable of monetary policy with the variable of unemployment. The point for this was to put the data in the form of a mathematical equation and analyze with respect to econometrics considerations the level of strength of the relationship between the monetary policy and unemployment. Since the focus of this paper in on these macroeconomic variable but with regard to United Kingdom, the data collected will obviously be from United Kingdom as well. The source of this information is simply and the provision is the courtesy of United Kingdom's Government. The website of National Office for Statistics of United Kingdom is the source from where all the information required for unemployment and variable of monetary policy have been taken. For the purpose of monetary policy, the Federal Bank of United Kingdom's website has also been referred too.

3.2.1 Analysis through the Primary Data

After getting the primary data was collected through the official records, the next step was to put the data in a form such that the relation between the two variables could be seen. The following steps were followed.

3.2.1a General form of the Equation

Y = o + 1X1 + 2W2 + 3W3 + e
X1 = o + 1W2 + e2

Where,

Y: is the change in the rate of unemployment in the United Kingdom for the period 2000 to 2010 as made available by the National Office for Statistics

o: is the constant term measuring the natural rate of unemployment existing in the United Kingdom for the period 2000 to 2010 (which is basically unaffected by monetary policy or any other macroeconomic variable).

o: is the constant term for the second equation taking into account the factors other than the incorporated variables in the equation.

X-1: is the change in the monetary supply in the United Kingdom made available in the country from the period 2000 to 2010 by the Federal Bank of United Kingdom.

The bank of England manages the M4 monetary aggregate depicting the picture of an actually complex financial and economic system in the country. As Gilbody (1988) defines it, M4 monetary aggregate comprises of the M3 (which consists of M1 plus PS sterling time deposits in banks, plus PS holdings of sterling bank Cash Deposits) plus PS holding of building society shares and deposits and sterling Cash Deposits, and bank Cash Deposits. The United Kingdom has another monetary aggregate M5 (comprising of M4 plus PS non building society holdings of money market instruments, bank bills, treasury bills, local authority deposits, certificates of tax deposits, and national saving instruments, excluding certificates "save as your earn" and other long term deposits), the Bank of England makes use of M4 aggregate to manage the supply of money in the economy. As Mullineux (2996) notes, one of the biggest short comings of a simple sum monetary aggregate is its inability to adjust in response to financial innovation, implying basically that, it is relatively more stable than the smaller monetary aggregates.

W2: Is the change in the rate of inflation in the economy of the United Kingdom for a period of 2000 to 2010. The rates of inflation have been measured by the retail price index instead of the consumer price index. The reason being the as far as the general public in concerned, the retail prices of every day products makes the biggest difference.

W3: measure the change in the rate of bank interest rates prevailing in the economy. These have been taken from the website of Bank of England.

e: stochastic error term or the residual amount, checking the level of unemployment in the country not explained by the monetary policy.

A very high error term would mean that the explained sum of squares is low and that the overall relationship between the two variables is weak. This could because of some other variable missing from the equation which helps explain the movement rates of unemployment (for example the level of gross domestic product for the year) or because the type of equation is not correct (for example, the change in monetary policy causing a change in the rate of unemployment may have a strong relationship). If the error term for the equation turns out to be very high, the form of equation will be changed to double log equation and then the results will be checked. If in both the equations the result turns out to be a high error term and a lower 1, the conclusion will be that the monetary policy does not affect unemployment rates in the United Kingdom to a very large extent.

3.2.1b Hypothesis

The following is the expectation for the nature of relationship between the monetary policy determinants of unemployment in the United Kingdom.

i) First set
a. Null Hypothesis: Ho: 1, 2, 3, 4 = 0
b. Alternative Hypothesis: H1: 1, 2, 3, 4 0
ii) Second Set
a. Null Hypothesis: Ho: 1 = o
b. Alternative Hypothesis: H1: 0

For these relationship, = 0.05 meaning that 95% of the times, the relationship that monetary policy significantly affects unemployment should be true for us to consider that such a relationship really exists and is not a random occurrence.

3.2.1c Decision Rule

Reject H1 if 1 is not significantly different than zero at a 95% confidence level and reject Ho if 1 is significantly different than zero at a 95% confidence level meaning that significant relationship exists between the monetary policy and unemployment levels in the United Kingdom.

3.2.1d Expected Results

Through the study of the literature, it is expected that that unemployment rate will have a negative relationship with the decrease in inflation. As the inflation goes up, unemployment goes down. The reason for this expectation is the link that money supply has with the two variables. As the money supply in the economy goes up, new jobs are created through the money invested and the rate of unemployment goes down. On the other hand, as the money supply in the economy goes up, there is more money available for the same basket of goods in the economy. Too much money then ends up chasing too few goods in the economy thus resulting in the rise in the prices of each good. So basically, as mentioned earlier as well, policy makers face a tradeoff between unemployment and inflation rates in the economy. To further make matters for the policy makers interesting, both inflation and unemployment have recurring implication for the economy and this then make it necessary for the policymakers to strike a balance between the two and constantly keep on managing the two variables.

Next it is expected that unemployment will have a negative relationship with the level of money supply in the economy.

Thirdly, with the unemployment rates, the bank interest rates are expected to have a negative relationship. The reason for expecting is the relationship between inflation and exchange rates. According to Fisher, interest rates in an economy at any time are actually the sum between the inflation rate and the real exchange rate (Mankiw, 2005). Therefore, it seems reasonable to expect that if inflation rate and unemployment are negatively related and that inflation rate is actually a strong component of the interest rates, there will exist, a negative relationship between unemployment and interest rates in the economy.

Whether the expectation comes out to be true or not has been analyzed in the data analysis section of the paper.

3.3 Secondary Data Collection

Apart from the primary data that is collected, secondary data for any research paper forms a very important part if one is to seriously see what others have found about the topic. Not only does this allow the researcher to have more ideas about the topic, but it also helps him or her to avoid repeating the same research and getting the same results again. The point of researching, that something should be input into the academic world needs to remain intact.

Keeping that in mind, this research paper gathered a significant amount of academic literature focusing on the alleged relationship between the monetary policy and unemployment rates in a country. This literature was taken for various sources which will be discussed later in the section and have been provided in the paper under the heading of literature review. The material and the information gathered will be later used in the paper to analyze the primary finding under the light of the secondary ones so that the overall conclusion reached is sound and covers the idea of monetary policy affecting the unemployment rates from all sides.

3.3.1 Source of Secondary Data

The secondary data was collected through online books and journals. Books were mainly studied for the study of theories and models (if any) were present on the topic and journals were studied to see whether others have found this topic of relationship between monetary policy and unemployment rates intriguing enough to have researched upon it. If yes, the findings will be studied and presented and used for analysis.

3.4 Ethical Issues taken Into Account

Since the study is based on the macroeconomic variables and concerns the entire public of the United Kingdom, no such ethical issues were met. The issue raised is one that requires official attention and therefore, official data has been sought. In that, no ethical consideration needed to be taken because no psychological or physical harm or social harm for that matter was being inflicted upon an individual or a group.

3.5 Reliability Credibility and Generalizability of the Research Paper

When a research paper is being created, its reliability happens to be a major concern. The simple reason being that the paper presents the theory upon which, a number of practical applications can later be based. The question of reliability actually asks whether the approach of the paper and the policy recommendations proposed by it can actually be incorporated into the real life. Since this paper is researching upon the macroeconomic policy implications, the argument of reliability becomes seriously important. Taking that into consideration the reliability of the results of this paper was given careful thought. The results of this paper are reliable because the data is taken from the most reliable and efficient data collection sources, the office for national statistics. This organization regularly and carefully updates its data in regards to the society, economy and politics of the United Kingdom and thus provides its users with up to date and most reliable information along with an effective snapshot of the situation in which the United Kingdom is in. Next, the paper presents reliable results because all the findings have been processed through MINITAB, one of the most reliable statistical software as far as the results are concerned. The data was not differenced or transformed in any way to avoid the loss of originality and therefore, again the findings are more close to actuality of the situation in the United Kingdom with respect to the monetary policy than presented by the papers which have transformed their date to achieve simpler results.

Next, is the question of the credibility of information that this paper presents. All the information taken from different sources have been cited and thus no part of the data actually became victim to the guesses and estimates of the researcher. The credibility of this paper is also reinforced by the fact that it absorbs information and analysis from both the primary and the secondary sources. The overall view presented then, is actually a convergence of the two dimensions. This makes the paper strong in its argument and more elaborative of its topic.

Finally, the information and analysis presented here is generalizable to not only the economies like that of the United Kingdom but also to the developing and under developed countries. The relationship that is focused upon through this paper actually a problem under consideration in many countries in the world. The tradeoff between inflation and unemployment makes the choice of policy application for the policy makers actually tough. This paper then, touches this problem and does that in an efficient manner. The findings of this paper then, can be applied to or at least provide aid to a number of other economic concerns of the world, thus being relatively high in the generalizable information category of research papers. Also, this paper has been made with the aim of making it generalizable and not specific. Even though the focus is on the economy of the United Kingdom solely, comparisons will be provided in the data analysis portion and also, the recommendations will be made as generalizable and usable as possible.

3.5 Limitations of the Research paper

The biggest limitation of this research paper is the lack of data and the difficulty of finding data in tabularized format and in the form that is required. Especially with finding the money supply value for the paper (which was one of the main and the most important elements of the research paper), finding the data was actually a tough. The data could have only been received from the Bank of England and the website only quoted the change in the money supply and not the absolute values themselves. Finally then, the change in the money supply value for the ten years had to be used which actually changes the actual course of the research. This limitation is then expected to have an effect on the efficiency of the equations that have been formed.

Moreover, this paper is limited in the analysis for the number of variables that have been included in the analysis. This is because the model that was being created was tried to be kept simple in its analysis and procedure so as to be reader friendly yet informative. Finally, the research paper is drawing analysis of the topic from the data of the economy of United Kingdom and therefore, the results may or may not be exactly applicable to the other economies. As has been pointed out, the recommendations will be applicable to a number of economies. That said, the analysis of the United Kingdom's data can actually present a number of interesting findings to other economy's policy makers as well and they can actually have the information and results of the various policies and ideas of different real life scenarios. Nonetheless, through this paper the analysis of the effect of monetary policy on the rates of unemployment in the economy, taking into consideration the rates of inflation and interest in the economy is actually quite sound.

Chapter Four: Data Analysis

This section of the paper is going to present the findings of the data that has been collected through the methodology mentioned in the section above. The regression analysis was done through the statistical software MINITAB. A number of variables and relationships were hypothesized. This section is going to present both the tabular data and the discussion of it.

Regression Analysis: Unemployment versus change in RPI, Bank Interest, m4

The regression equation is

Unemployment = 7.55 + 0.0881 chnge in RPI - 0.491 Bank Interest rates
+ 0.0266 m4

Predictor Coef SE Coef T P
Constant 7.5497 0.1291 58.46 0.000
chnge in RPI 0.08813 0.06228 1.41 0.160
Bank Interest rates -0.49127 0.02921 -16.82 0.000
m4 0.02658 0.05763 0.46 0.645

S = 0.571131 R-Sq = 70.3% R-Sq(adj) = 69.6%

Through the equation above, the following econometrical conclusion can be derived.

i) All else being equal, 1 unit rise in the level of inflation in an economy leads to a 0.0881 percent rise in the level of unemployment.

ii) All else being equal, 1 unit change in the level of bank interest rates causes a 0.491 percent decline in the levels of unemployment in the country.

iii) 1 unit (billion pounds) change in the level of money supply in the economy, the rate of unemployment will rise by 0.0266 percent.

Before coming to the analysis, the following is the analysis of variance table for the data of the economy

Source DF SS MS F P
Regression 3 112.696 37.565 53.57 0.000
Residual Error 128 89.760 0.701
Total 131 202.455

The R square for the regression analysis is 70.3% percent meaning that the three variables taken into account actually explain 70.3 % of the variations occurring in the change in the rate of unemployment.

The first conclusion is actually surprising and against the expectation made about the economy after having reviewed the literature. The relationship between inflation and the changes in the unemployment is actually coming out to be positive meaning that as the rate of inflation in the economy rises, the level of unemployment also rises. It is important to mention here that this is true strictly for the data of the United Kingdom and that for other economies of the world, this may or may not be true. This is actually bad news for the economy and sounds a lot like the great depression where the biggest surprise for the policy makers was the unemployment and inflation was rising together. With the rise in inflation, it actually meant that the economy is growing however, with the rise in unemployment, it was becoming apparent that this is not true since the business that once provide employment to people are shutting down thus resulting in an increase in the level of unemployment. The management of this became an important and well recognized and much feared trouble for the economic policy makers of the world. Finding the economy of the United Kingdom in the same state then is actually worrisome and the point that the economy has actually been in the state of decline since the 2000 (roughly). Before coming to that conclusion however, the following graph is going to present the trend of the change in unemployment in the country.

This graph shows that the trend of unemployment in the country has been rather fluctuating. In the first four years from 2000 to 2004, the rate of unemployment is actually seen to decline gradually. Let us see the trend for the rate of inflation in the country as well before going further with the analysis.

Simply looking at the trend then, it is seen that the rate of inflation as measure by the retail price index in the country is actually rising throughout the period of 4 years. Even in the first four years, it is seen to rise with almost uniform acceleration. In this time then, the rate of unemployment can be seen to decline depicting thus a negative relationship between the two variables. However, the trend is seen to change after 2008 when both the unemployment and retail price index are rising. This however occurs after a dip that both take. Unemployment declines sharply in the year 2008 RPI also takes a very strong decline in the year 2009. After that the unemployment rate literally rises sky high reaching to new boundaries whereas the inflation rate goes back to its normal uniform acceleration.

This means then that that inflation rate is actually depicting good news for the economy by depicting that the economy of the United Kingdom is actually growing with stable rate. The problem that can be seen to exist in the country is the trend and the management of employment. The trend and the rates of unemployment in the country are following trends that have previously been observed during the recession of the 1980s and the 1930s. Nobody wants to go back there and thus it has become extremely essential for the policy makers to manage the trend of unemployment.
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Sep 15, 2011

Masters Level Dissertation
(Course): finance
(Module):
add 9,000 words

5000 word literature review is done and will be give.

Customer's attitude and satisfaction of Internet Banking in China



INTRODUCTION

Background of Respondents

The banking sector is one of the sectors which play a very important role in the economic management of the any country. The activities of banks have far reaching effects of the economic activities and it is most often seem in its absence. According to Bernanke (2000) the core operation of banks has to do with serving as a financial intermediary in which it brings investors who are looking for areas to invest as well as investors who need money to invest together in a harmonious relationship for the benefit of each one of them. When banks function effectively and efficiently in any economy that economy is bound to achieve a growth pattern which will be contribute significantly to transforming the economic life of the people. The same can also be said of countries of places where the banking services are not strong and reliable and effective, they have challenges to grow entrepreneurs and effective investment conditions that will propel their private sector development which is the engine of the economic growth. All of these are indicative of the important role that banks play in any enterprise.

Internet Banking ChinaIt is the position of Kahn (2008) that banks as we know them today have changed over the years as a result of the things which society places value on. In the ancient times they were used as the storage of very important properties, like gold, jewelry, land titles, wills and other important document however time have changed and in most banks the services are relatively about loans services, investments funding, receipt and deposit of cash and other ancillary commercial contract advisory services. The retail component of banking which consists of individual consumers services such as payment and withdrawal services is the major component of the number of people who come to the banking hall in a day but it is not the largest component of banking services. The evidence is found in the work of Barnes (2010) who explains that in any bank, the long queues which are formed are usually by those who are seeking retail services rather than those who have come to ban k for wholesale purposes On the other hand because of the security implications of banking services, they don't always have the luxury of space to accommodate all of them. In countries like China where the population is very large retail banking services can be very challenging.

The automatic teller machines are among the many different types of technology which have been developed to easy pressure on frequent visit to the banking hall by consumer but this is only able to solve some of the problem. The advent of the internet has become a very important tool for banking services especially for most retail banking services. Through the internet banking services the banks have the opportunity to reduce the cost of security and other administrative charges since consumer can reach them and perform their task on the internet. Through the internet the customer has access his or accounts and get information on withdrawals and payment through the internet. Many enquires can be answered on the internet and other negotiations which including the opening of account can be done through the online technology. It is also the position of Kahn (2008) that the internet has become so relevant to the extent that it reduce the potential delays which human factor at the banking halls can bring to bear on transactions and also encourages confidentiality, security of information and unrestricted access to banking services within a day.

Indeed the convenience of banking which the internet has brought to bear on modern banking cannot be overemphasized and for that matter it is the expectation of the banking community that many customers will seize the opportunity quickly embraces this massive boost in technology. Significantly in 2009, Delloite and Touché concluded a study of internet usage for banking purposes in Beijing and came out with the conclusions that there are still less than 10 percent of banking customers who are on the internet banking platforms. Similarly in 2010 KPMG also did a survey in Shanghai and came out with the revelation that in that part of China only 7 percent of retail bankers make use of the internet facility.

The evidence which the two companies brought up was so surprising to a nation which has improved in the knowledge and the use of technology and has promoted its use over the last two decades with the greatest possible firmness. In the mist of such a situation it become increasing important to get hold of documents of evidential value to explain why consumers will choose to ignore a platform which seeks to increase their value in monitoring and managing their accounts with the greatest confidentiality. It is important to state that exiting literature is not ignorant or has not ignored some of the basic reason which customers have for why they are not using internet banking. The limitation there is that most of them have not come from an academic perspective where theories of consumer behavior have been used to explain exactly what is happening in the sector.

In this regard the focus of this research is on Shanghai bank customers and to find out how the exiting literature can explain the reasons why they are not patronizing the internet bank services. This research will be able to achieve this by empanelling an array of consumer behavior theories and then relating them to data which will be collected through primary research among retail banking consumer to find out how their responses can be interpreted within the concept of exiting literature.

Research Problem

Consumers and the behaviors which they exhibit has not been easily explained hence the consumer theories and proposal which have been developed to support the explanation of why the consumer will choose a particular way of doing things or not. One of the earliest attempts at explaining consumer behavior was by Bandura (1976) when he explained in his social cognitive theory that environmental factors affect the way the consumer behaves and at the same time the personality factors which is unique to each person. He explains that factors which prevail in the environment like political, economic, socio-cultural, technological and even geographical all contributes directly to the way the consumer behave in respect of the choice of products and services. Others such as Sheth et al (1991) have defined consumer behavior in what they call consumption values where they explain that consumers are almost always either influenced to either use or not a product or service by the social, emotional, functional, epistemic or the condition values which they get in each product.

In another breadth the economic concept of maximum utility has been used to explain the rational consumer who makes decisions absolutely on the basis of cost and benefit analysis. All of these have in one way or the other been used to explain the behavior of banking consumers in a number of places. Recently the Uses and Gratification theory has been used to give an exposition on why consumers have using certain product while other are ignored by the same people even though they may be serving the same purpose and then also in certain places they are not using internet. In like manner the use of internet services including banking and other forms of technology have been explained by using Rogers (1995) innovation adoption theory in which he explains five key issues which direct the consumers to make their choice of products.

Each of the above theories are able to present cogent arguments to explain consumer behavior to a larger extent but when it comes to the internet banking sector there are a lot more than the perception about technology and how consumers adapt to it. In China which Hofstede (2000) describes having a deep routed collectivist culture with a higher level uncertainty avoidance the issues of adoption of technology goes beyond the general attitude which the innovation adoption theories proposes as influencing the consumer decision making. This research has to do with a combination of theories and ideas which underline human behaviour and attitudes. In respect of the inherent factors and challenges which assail banks' customers when it come to accepting and using internet banking facilities for their own good.

Research Question

a. To what extent are consumer behavior theories applicable to consumers of internet banking services
b. What are the factors that acts as a constrain for retail customers from choosing to using the internet banking services which are offered by banks

c. In what way can bank improve their internet services in order to meet the expectation of the consumers

Research Aim and Objectives

The aim of the research is to find out the reasons behind the lack of patronage of internet banking services among retail bankers with particular emphasis on Shanghai retail banking consumers. The objectives of this research are:

a. The examine the existing literature on consume behaviour and to s find out how it explains behavior toward services like those provided by banks on the internet

b. To determine the deterrent factors for patronizing internet banking services

c. To suggest better and improved strategies for encouraging internet banking services

Relevance of Research

This research has a lot of usefulness for both industrial and academic purposes. Although it is not intended for the use of bankers, this research findings serve as useful tool for bankers to understand the trend and the consumer's appreciation with regard to the internet banking operations and then based on that align their services to suit their needs. This is the essence of the marketing concept that says that the consumers' need is those which must be solved by the product and services which organizations are offering. In the second place the research findings are relevant for academic purposes to the extent that it contributes substantially to the existing literature on consumer behavior in the internet banking sector.

In that way the research is useful for young researchers such as university student who may be looking for or will be doing research in the same area. They will find in it, good secondary information that can help them in their work. The aim of every researcher is to build on what others have done. In that same way it is the expected by this research that others will build upon this work. In that regard the findings of this research will be helpful for advance researchers when it comes to providing the basic issue or information that can allow them to set their studies into its proper context.

Chapter 1: Introduction

This is the section where the research background is explained and the factors which in necessitating the research have been disclosed. The aim and the objectives of the research, the research problem and the relevance of the study are explained.

Chapter 2: Literature Review

In this chapter the focus is on the existing literature which has been collected. They are analysed to see what they are saying about the factors which affect the way consumers react with the use of technology and for that matter the internet

Chapter 3: Methodology

This is the methodology chapter where the methodology is explained. The reason why a positivist research paradigm and a survey approach has been used is explained while the source of data, the data collection instruments and he analysis thereof has also been explained accordingly.

Chapter 4: Analysis of Findings

In this section the analysis of the primary data has been presented in both qualitative and quantitative proportions. In terms of the qualitative data, excerpts of the interview transcripts is what has been used while frequency distribution tables and diagram have been used to analyze the quantitative data.

Chapter 5: Conclusions

In this final chapter, some conclusions from the analyzed data have been drawn. The conclusions here are aimed at presenting what the data is saying about the research questions which have been presented. The limitations of the research and the areas for further studies have also been highlighted

Literature review :

Introduction to the Literature

There are a number of converging reference domains and key theories that suggesting consumers can be influenced by numerous potential factors. These can be adapted to understand the choices which the internet banking customer also makes as to using the traditional banking method or the new and more simplified online marketing platforms. So far almost all the theories of consumer behaviour used to explain consumer preferences in the mass media and its use, the uses and gratification theories, the innovation diffusion theories, the theories of technology acceptance, online consumer behaviour, online service adoption, service switching costs theories, the theory of consumption value, the social cognitive theory, the utilitarian economic consumption model and other related once can all be used to give a better understanding of the adoption of internet banking by consumer.

In this chapter which is the literature review both theoretical and practical exposition which has been made in relation to how these theories fit into the analysis of the online consumer and how practical studies have pointed out at the consistence of these theories is summarized and extensively review below. It may not be possible to make use of all the theories which have been mentioned hence a representative sample of existing theories, approaches and influences that contribute to an understanding of the factors influencing consumer adoption of internet banking are what have been selected to shown. In the last chapter of the research the results which have been collected here in the literature review and related to the findings of secondary data and then based on that analysis will be done on the similarity and differences of their opinion.

Mass Media Theory and Internet Banking

The first theory which can be used to relate the behaviour and attitude to internet banking is a mass medium, mass media theories. Here the focus is about explaining the reason why Chinese and people in general people choose the internet for general message consumption. As indicted in the studies of Lin (1999), there is a significant empirical correlation that exit between the motives for accessing television and online media. The mass media theory of reception approaches proposed by Cunningham and Finn, although limited to offering an explanation of why people prefer certain media can be used to explain attitude to the internet because it is a media platform. With an understanding of the value of 'uses and gratification' of the media messages, the reception theory explains that media audiences have an awareness of their needs and meet them where possible by choosing appropriate media.

Further to this point of view Korgaonkar and Wolin found out that indeed for most individuals that make use of internet, their main motive or need are information, social escapism, interactive control, socialisation and sometimes economic motivations. In these same studies, there were concerns about security, privacy and trust which act as disincentives to using the traditional banking platform where there is physical contact between the banker and the customer. These views have been put to tests in a recent survey in both China and Russia which are two countries with similar political historical antecedents and in which certain entrepreneur have found out that their information has been leaked to agent of the sate and that has usually landed them into a lot of trouble although they may have genuinely gotten their wealth. The results confirmed the suspicion that in these countries many people than generally recognizes and believe that they do not need the traditional need to be physically present with their banker but rather they only need to have occasional encounter when there are serious consequences.

There is an explanation of this disinterest in the use of the traditional banking platforms in the theory of 'prospective gratification' (Larose et al., 2001) which highlights that positive or negative experience in use can motivate internet usage. Larose et al (2001() also identified habits strength, deficient self-regulation (when habit repeatedly leads to negative self-perception) and self-efficacy (the belief in one's capacity to organise and execute a particular course of action in an individual's decision to use the internet can be influenced by usage.

In summary what the theory of uses and gratification is saying is that for some people the only reason for which they use the internet as a media platform is that they derive some particular satisfaction form it or because they attain a level of gratification from the usage of the internet. The issues is not just about the use of internet for banking purpose but since the banking platforms is been run on an areas where they receive a lot of gratification then they are most interested in making use of this platforms. Though the theory in itself does not categorically state the gratification which they derive from the use of such facilities since they are personal and vary from one person to another, it is asserts with the greatest possible firmness that gratification in general usage can be a cause for which internet banking is been used.

There are many example of this in literature especially in the study of Zuboff, and Maxmin where they explain that among the respondents in a survey involving certain countries of people from certain parts of the world they consider the use of internet as part of their daily lives and they derive a lot of satisfaction form it. Indeed it has been pointed out in that same study that had it not been the fact that the strings of satisfaction which pull people to stay on the internet they will have all left. By that he was positing that gratification has some magnetic force on a person not because the person is not able to walk or has other thing to do and cannot go to the banking hall but is just in love with the internet as a platform for banking because of the gratification satisfaction

Sources of Gratification

Aspect of the Alfred Bandura's (1976) provide an answer to the question of the exact gratification or satisfaction which consumers are likely to be having from a particular media source or from consuming a particular product for which reason he will be equally yoked to it and then can hardly be separated. The renowned social psychologist (Bandura) explains that any of such elements must be a psychological factor because the psychological attribute or effects on a person is so strong that it is not easy for a person to deny that which is naturally inherent unless by an extreme force and occur over a long period of time. Borrowing from his earlier studies of the social learning theory, Bandura explains that personality factors dictates satisfaction and gratification and people are always looking for products and services which aligns with their desires or fills their own psychologically induced gaps or enforces the psychological believes. Further to this Heig, adds that and individual's unique traits gives shape to his or her perception of life and life values which is acquired. This in turn affects his emotional stability. Consumers including those who are internet banking user may find out that banking on the internet or the usage of its enforce their sense of belief, the self esteem and other critical factors which they cherish but in other that may not be the case at all.

Heig further explain that in a research which was conducted among middle age women in Japan which was one of the countries to have adopted internet banking very early, they noted that personality values such as the person's perception and attitude to what it is to have a comfortable life, a life of equality, a life of freedom and freedom and a life of fun are all very important consideration and satisfaction which they get by been seen as bankers on the internet. Further to this Zhu et al has also noted that in a research by in the United States of America (San Bernardo, California ) in 2009 they recorded responses of respondents who are using internet banking services simply because it enforces their concept of social acceptance exciting life and a life of happiness Other respondent in that study also disclosed that they were more drawn to the internet because using it enforce their desires for pleasure and security which ultimately gives them self-fulfilment. These responses are not the only ones which have been found out as constituting gratification sources for which people are making use of the internet. In another study by Wilson and D. Howcroft in Brazil, it came out that some respondent think that the internet and its usages gives them inner peace, self-respect and promotes a sense of belonging.

Finally it was also recorded that there are some people who have become yoked to the use of the internet and other material on the internet due to their perception of how it is to have wisdom, salvation, fear, rationality and humour while other also were there because of their disposition on how the internet enforces their attitude to, sex, emotions and scarcity. It was also note that there are sentiments and attitudes however unacceptable to another person) which have become so inherent in the consumers life and to the extent that they were unlikely to compromise on each of them. To them through the internet platforms they are always able to fill the gap which the lack of internet and internet product bring to their lives and always yearn for attachment to any opportunity to get enforcement for these values.

If the above evidence collected in the primary studies is analysed in relation to what Katz, Gurevitch and Haas describes them it is possible to say that there is consistency in literature about the fact that cognitive need which has to do with the acquisition of information, knowledge and understanding, affective needs which is about emotion, pleasure, feeling, personal integrative needs which is about seeking credibility, stability, status, social integrative needs which deals with family and friends and tension release needs which has to do with the human need for escape and diversion can all be seen a useful attributes or pulling strings which affect the affect s a person's gratifications

Rogers' theory of innovation diffusion

Rogers' theory of innovation diffusion can also be use d to explain the consumer attitude to internet banking considering the fact that is a relatively a new concept in banking service delivery. Here the aspect which is significant is the operative forces. Rogers explains that five innovations attributes enables an understanding of innovation and its rate of adoption with respect to relative advantage. The first attribute is compatibility which is a measure of the degree to which the internet banking service is consistent with the consumer's values, experiences and needs. This is followed by complexity and trial-ability which is the measure of the degree to which the internet banking service can be experimented prior to making the decisions whether to adopt. Finally the Rogers (1995) talks about 'observability' which is a measure of degree to which the service can be observed being successfully used.

Before the popularisation of the Rogers' theory of innovation diffusion there was the technology acceptance model (TAM) which was proposed by Davis (1989) and which has also been used to scan consumer choices in internet banking adoption. In this model the focus is on the 'perceived usefulness' and 'perceived ease of use' are of internet banking services. Consumer appreciation of the issue of internet banking comes from their perception of how uneasy or how easy it is to make use of an internet platforms Usually such a decision is arrived at after listening to people who have had their own encounter with the use and have spoken about it.

The reported experiences serve to influence their ability to adopt or not to the issue of technology. In modern studies a number of them have ignored the more recent Rogers' theory of innovation diffusion and have employed a TAM-base theoretical lens to interrogate consumer behaviour. For example in the study of Williamson he came out with the position that there are additional constructs that may be influential in internet service adoption. He noted in particular a holistic framework that incorporates complex social, psychological and economic elements was recently proposed.

Again Williamson also draws a correlation between aspects of Sheth et al's (1991) consumption value theory and the adoption of technology. In an explanation of what they called epistemic values which is a description of the early adopters in the sense that it relates to novelty or knowledge-searching behaviour. Here the point which is explained is that there are certain consumers who are motivated by the fact they want to be identifies with the latest technology. It has become almost certain that some consumers want to find out what it is that is new. They are always moving form product to product once it is the latest in town.

With technology that is fact moving consumers in the banking sector are likely to be affected by this drive in which case some people are on the internet banking because it is the latest. To such consumers their attitude is that everybody is getting associated with them and for that matter they also want to show that they are modern and appreciates contemporary technology. For such people they do not stay long because after a new technology emerges they abandon their love for such facilities and join the latest.

It will be recalled that the when the mobile phone revolution started, there were people who were looking for any phone, then it went to those who have the smallest of phones, it came to a time when the focus shifted to those who have a flip phone and then a slide phone. Within months the attention of consumers about phones went to those with radio facilities, then with Bluetooth, then with camera and then later with internet. Currently the focus is with the iphone or the latest smart phones. The changing trend in the banking industry and service profiles will mean that for such consumer if another opportunity comes to do banking by other mean, they will be prepared to jump into its.

Shergill and Li have found that among Chinese bankers there are people who are of this stock. In a student who were doing banking on the internet were doing this for the fact that it is the new way of life and that they were merely doing that to identify with the order of the day and not because of the fact that they agree getting many major benefits which they desire

Table 1: Potential influences on consumer adoption of internet banking.

Approach Influences Source

Reception to mass - Social escapism, information seeking, interactive control, Cunningham and Finn, 1996;
media use: Uses and socialisation and economic motivations Korgaonkar and Wolin, 1999; Lin,
gratifications - Security, privacy and trust 1999; Ruggiero, 2000.

Reception to mass - Habit strength, deficient self-regulation, self-efficacy Bandura, 1997; LaRose et al. 2001;
media use: Prospective Limayem and Hurt, 2003.
gratification

Diffusion of innovation - Relative advantage, compatibility, complexity, trialability, Rogers, 1995.
observability

Technology acceptance - Perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use Davis (1989)
Online consumer - Channel knowledge, convenience, experience, perceived Li et al., 1999; Bellman et al., 1999;
behaviour and online accessibility and perceived utility Dellaert and Kahn, 1999; Huang, 2002;
service adoption - Time savings Miyazaki and Fernandez, 2001;
- Site waiting time Nissenbaum, 2004; Pew, 2005; Gefen
- Security, privacy and trust et al., 2003; Meuter et al., 2000.
- Cost
- Service quality
Service switching costs - Procedural, financial and relational Burnham et al., 2003
Adoption of internet - Convenience ACNielsen, 2005; Tan and Teo, 2000;
banking - Service quality Chung and Paynter, 2002; Gartner
- Perceived relative advantage, compatibility, trialability, Group, 2003b; Pew, 2003; Kolodinsky
complexity (after Rogers, 1995) et al., 2000; Sathye, 1999; Black et al.,
- Demographics, consumer attitudes and beliefs 2002; Ramsay and Smith, 1999;
- Security, privacy, trust, risk Thornton and White, 2001; Durkin
- Needs already satisfied, familiarity, habit (2004); Suh and Han, 2002; Zhu et al.,
- Lack of awareness 2002; Shergill and Li, 2005; Ilett, 2005;
- Consumer, product, organisation, channel characteristics Perumal and Shanmugam, 2005; Siu
- Convenience, adaptability, computer and technology and Mou, 2005; Wan et al., 2005; Waite
confidence, knowledge and Harrison, 2004
- High levels of internet use at work
- Gender

Service Quality and Internet Banking Services

When it comes to consumer evaluation of service quality and other practical issues which they look out for in their choice of banking services in general and also of internet banking it has been noted that Sheth et al's (1991) call consumption value theory and Zeithaml et al (1990) service quality dimensions are very important models which can be used to explain the attitudes which the consumers have in getting loyal to their products and services. In the first place Sheth et al talks about the fact that consumers have values which they look out for in every product or service. These are social values, the emotional values, the epistemic values, the conditional value and the functional values.

The functional values are what are important in terms of service quality dimensions. Functionality deals with the ability of the facility to solve the banking need of the consumer in manner that is even more that the consumer is expecting. Here the focus is the efficacy of the products or services, the cost involved as well as other practical benefits which will make the consumer get attracted and become loyal to consuming the product and services. Sheth et al (1991) suggest that it is the responsibility of the bank to design its operation polices and the internet programs to ensure that the consumers are at home with t since they are also have their own elements which they use to judge the quality of the services.

It is for this reason that the bank need to define for itself a strategic research system that will track the changing values of the consumer and address them according in line with the marketing concept Zeithaml et al (1990) summarised service quality into five main dimensions. In the internet banking sector not all of them are perfectly adopted to suit but their relevance cannot be over emphasized For example in the first dimension of evaluation of services quality has to with an evaluation or attraction of consumer because of the fact that the appearance of the banks physical facilities, equipment, personnel and communication materials are very attractive and sustains consumers' interest and ensures their ease of use. Secondly Wang et alexplains that service quality is also essential in terms of the ability of the bank to perform the services which it has promised in a dependable and accurate manner while the third dimension encompass the ability of the bank to willingly help their customers and provide them with prompt services and innovative products Finally these last dimension is about the knowledge and courtesy which the banking staff or professes and which they employ to convey trust and confidence to the consuming public and then the quality of caring individual attention the bank provides its customers. In all of these there is no single way by which consumers can evaluate but there are varying items which they can consider before giving their consent to its continuous use. Walker et al explains that consumers as ration consumers who have to exercise purchasing decision among the many decision always posses certain questions to themselves as a basis for evaluating the efficacy of an organisation or a bank in providing all of these specific cultural dimensions. It is further explained by Wan et al (2005) that by and large consumers in the banking sector will want to compare between the different types of services and then make a choice.

Even among the banks there may be differences in the network which are provided. According to Tan and Teo every customer is aware that an excellent bank must have modern looking equipment and the physical facilities of the bank including its website will have to be visually appealing. Again consumers have in their mind when they are evaluating the services quality of a bank that employees at excellent banks must be neat in their appearance not only in the dress but also in their communication and organizations but these may not be directly applicable to the internet banking services. Again it has been pointed out that service quality evaluation of a bank must be done on the back of the information that the employees of excellent banks usually understand the specific needs of their customers and when they promise to do something by a certain time, they do it. Other questions which the consumer asks are in relation to the efforts which the bank makes when the customer has a problem. As much as they expect the banks to show a sincere interest in solving it, they are also looking for the banks to perform the service right the first time. Suh and Han has also noted that all excellent banks usually have as an objective the provision of services at the time they promise to do so and must of necessity insist on error free records.

Again the employees of such banks must be bold in telling customers exactly when services will be perform and not to take them for granted and indulge in hide and seek and the propagation of falsehood. Such an attitude diminishes the value which the consumers have for the bank. Again all consumers have estimation that an excellent bank must have employees that must give prompt service to customers and must always be willing to help customers even if the customers are at fault or they are not in the right. It is the sustained ability of banks to never to be too busy to respond to customers' requests and behaviour of employees in excellent banks is what usually instils confidence in customers.

According to Strauss and Corbin it is important for all excellent banks that want to continue its operation to know that customers will feel safe in transactions based on their past experiences and the assurances which they give to them while employees of excellent banks must be consistently courteous with customers and must have the knowledge to answer customers' questions. Finally excellent banks are expected to be measured by their ability to give customers individual attention and have operating hours convenient to all their customers. These are by no means an exhaustion of the requirements which the consumers expect of good bank because according to Sathye (1990) excellent banks ought to have employees who give customers personal service and also must have their customers' best interest at heart. Although it has not been a common ground for evaluation banking performances the latter think that for a bank that want to hold up interest in customers, the materials associated with the service (pamphlets or statements) must be visually appealing at an excellent bank.

As already indicated Sathye has posited although not all of them can be directly applied to the internet banking services most of them are the basis of which the consumer will want to find out before they decide to make any investments or make use of the internet platforms. Rogers has tested the efficacy of evaluating consumer attitude to banking services based on these evaluated values of the service quality and has found out that it is almost certain that its application is real only if it is deployed to suit peculiarities of the area of research. When he examined the internet business platform in Chinese industrialised town of Shanghai, he came out with the conclusions that most of the internet customers have use of the internet because they think that bank website is well designed. This he assigned to the epistemic or values or aesthetic features which organisations have.

By that he was pointing out the fact that sometimes one of the things which the companies do not place so much importance on can affect their evaluation of consumer. The use of colour, the creative design and other pictorial demonstrations which are used to attract the interest of the consumers are all very important in sustaining consumer interest. The above findings notwithstanding he also pointed out at the fact that most consumers also give careful consideration to the simplicity with which they can navigate the website of the bank and process their transaction without any major difficulty. To this end they do not expect that the company will have website that is continuously freeze requiring that they go to the banking hall all the times which they want to avoid.

Another Others which came out is the speed of the site is good and whether it is less time consuming using the internet banking than going to the bank branch while other want to find out if the internet platforms has all the product and services at the baking hall so that they can effectively do most of the services online just as effectively as using the branch. Some customers who make use of internet services also say they are careful about having error free records in the same manner as they can have access to their account and monitor it at their own conveniences.

The responses which other indicated that internet banking increases security due to the fact that they are able to monitor their accounts at anytime while for other their continuous use is that the cost of transacting business online is cheaper than using a branch. Apart from the fact that some internet banking staff say they are still on the internet because of the fact that they can interact with staff through online chat facilities, there some people who are of the view that because their bank informs them in advance whenever they have to interrupt their online service. By far the most important discovery which Siu and Mou (2005) pointed out was the fact that all the customers indicated that the website is active or available at all times.

It is important now to assert the position that for all of the above studies which have been examined a common understanding and perception which they bring to bear is with customer adoption of internet banking is convenience of service. Convenience has to do with a number of issues in terms of the ability to manipulate operation without having to make too much movement or too much effort but by a merely clicking of a button. Significantly these same issue about convenience which is identified by a number of studies including ACNielsen, 2005; Pew, 2003; Ramsay and Smith, 1999; Thornton and White, 2001 as an important adoption factor. In that survey in US they found out that the main motivator for internet banking is the fact that it is available on a 24/7 basis and it has an unrestricted access and time savings (Pew, 2003). The same issue about convenience is also presented by Chung and Paynter when he studied the case of internet banking in South Korea by noticing that many people who did not use internet banking believed they did not need high levels of convenience.

Summary of Literature

From the literature which has been examined above, there are some clear issues which have come up and that must be highlighted to form the base of the next phase of the research. In the first place it has been made clear as it was indicated in the introduction that indeed the theoretical concepts which have been developed to interpret consumer behaviour can be used to explain the challenges of how and the factors which affect the consumer's choice of internet banking services. In practice the literature has found out that the main factors are attention, accessibility convenience, usability, self-efficacy, risks & costs, relative, advantage, knowledge & support, emotional and social value, conditional value and the effect of environmental factors are scattered with the theories of consumer behaviour that relates to the use of mass media and , the uses and gratification theories, the innovation diffusion theories, the theories of technology acceptance, online consumer behaviour, online service adoption, service switching costs theories, the theory of consumption value, the social cognitive theory, the utilitarian economic consumption model.

There is however an understanding of this analysis that given the fact that these contributing theories and factors identified has not specifically been designed to meet the growing needs and the peculiarities of the banking consumers, they appear to be insufficient and not full proof solid foundational basis from which to explore the intricacies of the contemporary banking environment more so when consumer's needs for adoption of internet banking is changing on a daily basis. The grounded theory is however able to compensate for this gap. In practice therefore the literature has indicated that many people have indicated that banking services are patronised on the basis of convenience. The dominance of this does not means that other factors do not influence the choice of internet banking at all. On the contrary convenience of use of banking facilities through the internet is only a dominant factor which was identified but the effect of the other factors like Convenience, Usability, Self-efficacy, Risks & Costs, Relative, Advantage, Knowledge & Support, emotional and social value, conditional value are also very strong especially among the young people most of whom have very little financial asset which they keep at the bank.

The literature also points to the fact that serious improvements in banking service delivery especially when it comes to internet banking application and environments of use. The literature paints a picture of the fact that organizations will be able to manage their consumer's attitudes to new internet service applications better if they seek to put in place measures and programs that will understand such experiences and then over time, and gradually adjust and not merely adopting new technology.

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Sep 15, 2011

Exchange Rate and China Export Trade Research



The structure of dissertation.

Title: the influence of exchange rate movements on export trade in China

Chapter 1 introduction

1. Background

2. Dissertation aim and layout

Chapter 2 the evolution of the exchange rate movements on the foreign trade

1. Relevant theories to the research

2. Literature review

The influences of exchange rate fluctuations on domestic export trade

a. The fluctuations of exchange rate on domestic export trade have a positive influence

b. The fluctuations of exchange rate on domestic export trade have a negative influence

c. The fluctuations of exchange rate on domestic export trade have inconspicuous influence

The influences of exchange rate fluctuations on export trade in China

3. Summary

Chapter 3 the analysis of reasons for RMB exchange rate movements

1. The history of RMB exchange rate movements and the corresponding export trade situation

2. Two factors

a. Objective factors

b. Policy factors

Chapter 4 the analysis of the influence of exchange rate movements on export trade in China

1. Investigation to the influence of exchange rate movements on export trade in China

a. Methodology

VAR analysis

b. Results and discussions

2. The advantage influence of exchange rate movements on the export trade in China

3. The disadvantage influence of the exchange rate movements on the export trade in China

4. Some suggestions of choosing a exchange rate for China's export trade

5. Summary

Chapter 5 conclusion and recommendation

1. Conclusion

2. Recommendation for further research

----------

Chapter 4:The Analysis Of The Influence Of Exchange Rate Movements On Export Trade In China



Export Trade China1. Investigation to the influence of exchange rate movements on export trade in China.

Over the recent years China has been the world largest exporter. Even though there has been a rapid rise in its exports but it has been at the cost of other countries' market shares, which has pointed us in the direction of China's exchange rate. Now the real question is whether this export boom can maybe partially be explained by an undervalued currency.

The under-evaluation or over-evaluation of a currency has always been difficult to encompass, however in the case of renminbi it seems to be true as China is the final processor in global supply chain. Thus, this makes China's exchange rate policies important worldwide. Even for those countries which are linked to China through production chains, mainly East-Asian countries.

Recently several studies have analyzed factors behind China's foreign trade. According to these papers, Chinese exports have been motivated to a large extent by increasing demand, in particular since China's WTO agreement in December 2001 (Table 1). The studies also confirm that Chinese exports are price elastic; an appreciation of renminbi implies a fall in China's exports.

Somewhat surprisingly however, several studies report that imports have also fallen - instead of rising - when the renminbi real effective exchange rate appreciates (Marquez and Schindler 2006, Cheung et al. 2008, and Garcia-Herrero and Koivu 2008 and 2010). For example, Garcia-Herrero and Koivu (2010) find that a 10% appreciation would lead to a decline of 6% in imports of dispensation (Table 1). Ordinary imports would decline even more.

Table 1. Long-term impacts of real effective exchange rate and world demand on China's imports and exports.

Regular exports Fully Processed exports Regular imports Imports meant for processing
Consequence of ten percent appreciation of China's real exchange rate -14% -12% -16% -5%
Impact of one percent rise in world demand +1.7% +1.6% +1.8% +0.4%

When examining the imports more closely, one notices that it is primarily imports from other Asian countries that decrease when the renminbi appreciates (Table 2). This counterintuitive end result points to the importance of being a important part of the global production chain. As a matter of fact, an appreciation of currency that causes the export sector's competitiveness to decline also spells a fall in investment goods' demands as well as demands for imported parts, and various components for that particular sector. This result also has a strong repercussion worth noting, namely that China's export goods are becoming more of a complement to the production of goods in other Asian economies than a substitute.

Table 2. Impacts of long-term bilateral real exchange rate and demand on China's imports from its major trading partners

China's imports from Korea Germany Australia Taiwan Malaysia US Thailand
Impact of ten percent appreciation of China's two-sided RER -5% 7% (0%) (-28%) (3%) (-14%) -5%
Impact of one percent surge in China's demand 0.6% (0.8%) (0.3%) (0.9%) (-0.2%) 0.5% (-0.2%)
Note: parentheses values aren't statistically significant.

Source: Koivu and Garcia-Herrero

It was predicted way back in 2005 that renminibi couldn't be attached to the American dollar anymore and its worth would be solid, based on market supply and demand with reference to a plethora of various currencies. However a more market-based mechanism to determine the daily central parity of the RMB/USD exchange rate was introduced.

In spite of the desertion of the US Dollar peg and the consequent build up of the infrastructure of the financial market, the renminbi's stability against the American dollar has been maintained, appreciating by just 1.5% in a single year following the revaluation of 2.1% (Chart 1). The broad stability of the currency against the American Dollar implies that it has managed to moved considerably in effective terms, given the strength of the US Dollar. It eventually appreciated by 8.8 percent back in 2005 in nominal effective terms but later declined by 3.9 percent since the end of that year, that is, December 2005.

Chart 1

However, the Chinese economy has continued to power ahead despite the marked fluctuations in the renminbi effective exchange rates. Exports have mainly sustained their strong growth impetus, and trade surplus had increased from 1.7% - 5.4% of GDP from the year 2004 up till the initial part of 2006.

Chinese currency is widely perceived to be undervalued against the dollar. Estimates of the degree of undervaluation against the range of the American dollar from 7%-67% as stated by Cline and Williamson (2007). American government officials have consistently argued for a more rapid appreciation of the renminbi against the American dollar so as to keep away from further protectionist actions fuelled by critics of the increasing mutual trade unevenness between the countries. While China formally changed its exchange rate setting procedure in July 2005, it has largely rebuked or sidestepped American pressure to allow the currency to appreciate more rapidly. The appreciation of the renminbi has been slow enough that, from July 2005 to October 2007, the renminbi had in fact nominally depreciated against the euro and pound. The problem of the alleged weakness of the Chinese currency is not just limited to the United States. Back in November 2007, Europeans such as Jean-Claude Trichet, European Central Bank president jointly released a statement calling for China to make its currency appreciate more quickly.

a. Methodology

VAR analysis



In financial mathematics and financial risk management, Value at Risk (VAR) is a widely used risk measure of the risk of loss on a specific portfolio of financial assets. For a given portfolio, probability and time horizon, VAR is defined as a threshold value such that the probability that the mark-to-market loss on the portfolio over the given time horizon exceeds this value (assuming normal markets and no trading in the portfolio) is the given probability level.

VAR has five main uses in finance: risk management, risk measurement, financial control, financial reporting and computing regulatory capital. VAR is sometimes used in non-financial applications as well.

Important related ideas are economic capital, backtesting, stress testing, expected shortfall, and tail conditional expectation.

The VAR system consists of three variables, i.e., the nominal exchange rate, the real exchange rate, and the relative output of China and a foreign country. Consistent with most previous studies, the empirical evidence demonstrates that real shocks are the main drivers of the fluctuations in real and nominal exchange rates, indicating that the central bank cannot maintain the real exchange rate at its desired level over time.

The empirical microstructure methodology consists of 2 chief components: a statistical model and a structural model (Lyons, 2001). These couple of models are appropriate for market maker markets, particularly the foreign exchange market. Two characteristic statistical models exist: Trade-Indicator and Vector Autoregression (also called VAR). On the other hand, the most important structural model is known as Dealer-Problem approach.

The VAR model was brought forward by Sims (1980), and was put in to application by Hasbrouck (1991) for microstructure theory. Of late this tool has been usually employed for currencies (Payne, 2003; Evans, 2002; Danielsson and Love, 2006; Froot and Ramadorai, 2005). Before we estimate the VAR approach, lets us shift our emphasis to the assumptions related to the model. The VAR model in such practical work is based on these behavioral assumptions:

1. The public information right away gives an idea of the quotes.

2. The knowledgeable traders develop their profit through effective usage of their market orders.

Let Y be a vector of transaction characteristics and let Z be the lag of each transaction characteristic, and consider t as an event-time observation counter. The following VAR model is employed in this empirical work:

Where,

P is the change of exchange rate;
tX is the accumulated order flow;
i-i* is the interest rate differential;
R is the country risk premium.

The VAR equations are estimated by employing OLS and may consist heteroskedasticity robust standard errors.

The specifications of the VAR model built to test for exchange rate changes are shown in the equation given below:

P is the change of exchange rate; X is the accumulated order flow; i-i* signifies the interest rate differential; R is the country risk premium. Another additional variable represents the country risk premium. The variable P and the companion matrix are allowed for a common number of lags and are absolutely constant across the currencies.

tt= is the covariance matrix; it makes room for residuals across the currencies for simultaneous correlation. In theory, the credit cost shows a marginal loan i for a country during the particular year t. Though, practically, the credit cost is hard to measure. Berganza et al. (2004) are of the opinion that the greatest available alternative for measuring the country risk premium, and the most extensively employed is the Emerging Markets Bonds Indices (EMBI). It is worth mentioning that the EMBI Global comprises of 27 countries, and serves as a standard of investor demand for budding market's debt.

VAR Graphical data



China-US real exchange rate on GDP prices and accumulated order flow in China over the period 1990-2008.

Year 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Real Exchange rate 109 100 101 110 87 100 105 104 102 96 96 95 95 96 99 101 103 113 130 1 20

While the VAR has its exclusive advantages as a modeling framework, one of the greatest difficulties in arranging such a framework involves the means of determining the suitable lag length for the system variables. 2 methods for selecting the most favorable VAR lag length have been recommended in the literature, the various methods built upon information criteria and on cross-equation restrictions. The Cross-equation restriction method needs the Block F-test, which renders it intractable in the setting of the VAR (Brooks, 2009). We consequently employ the Akaike Information Criteria method which is needed where the number of independent variables is larger; it strikes a balance between reduction of RSS and increase of penalty term. The multivariate information criterion is best defined by the equation given below:

Instructions for making an AIC table

- 1
Calculate the no. of parameters of the model. As an example, the regression equation Growth = 6 + 2*time + 2*meal + error has four parameters, while Growth = 2*time + 2*diet + error consists of 3 parameters.

- 2
Multiply Step 1 by 2 and save the results.
- 3
Go for the natural log of the possibility.
- 4
Multiply -2 with Step 3..
- 5
Carry out an addition of Step 2 and Step 4.

We carry out the ADF test and locate the smallest AIC for the most favorable lag length. The results are depicted in Table 4.

From the table above, we come across the least AIC from the lag length 15. In estimating the VAR system, we then settle on a lag length of 15 for every variable in the system.

b. Results and discussions

This research is concerned with the short-term dynamics and long-term determinants of the Chinese exchange rate, with a specific focus on the function of cumulative order flow in the entire process. Employing an inventive method devoid of all transaction record details, we build a measure of everyday order flow in the Chinese exchange to get to know the surplus demand and pressure in the foreign exchange market of China. A new variable known as the country risk premium, is also added in the variable space, alongside the exchange rate, interest rate differential and order flow. To examine the Chinese exchange rate behavior with relation to its long-run equilibrium and short-run dynamics, we make a VAR framework in order to do estimation. We come to know that cumulative order flow is co-incorporated with China's foreign exchange rates.

It is evident that order flow possesses a lot of power in the foreign exchange market of China. The coefficient on the order flow variable Xt is always positive, signifying its positive relationship with the dollar's CNY price. The coefficient is often taken to be 0.0000228 in the RMB equation, which tells us that on a certain day with a 10% gain in net buying of dollars, the RMB price would soar by 0. 228 %. The result of impulse responses shows that order flow responds without delay and far more strongly than various other variables (excluding the exchange rates of course) to the movement of the exchange rate over the relatively short horizon. The interest rate differential possesses a marked influence on exchange rate movement in the long horizon.

Model type Number of parameters Akaike Information Criterion

Core/buffer slope: vr(ns)=0ns+1nsI(buffer)+É› 2 335.43
Core/buffer +intercept: vr(ns)=0+1ns+(2ns+3ns)I(buffer)+É› 4 338.10
Global and intercept: vr(ns)=0+1ns+É› 2 392.06
Global slope: vr(ns)=0ns+É› 1 393.67
Intercept-only: vr(ns)=0+É› 1 437.50
Core/buffer intercept: vr(ns)=0+1I(buffer)+É› 2 436.21

Country risk premium has a alike tendency but to a smaller extent. Comparing our condition with that of Evans and Lyons (2002), we come across a remarkable factor. The coefficients in our research as well as their research are both important, but the difference is that our R2 is fairly low, just 0.0878, whereas Evans and Lyons (2002) get its value as 0.64 and 0.46, but this is in accordance with the results of a alike research carried out in Brazil, another major budding economy. It appears as if the government involvement in the budding foreign exchange market might be the reason for this particular difference. In a nut-shell, this research reveals the long term co-association between the examined variables, comprising of order flow, the macro influences proxy as well as the exchange rates. The short run dynamics reveal the fact that the fresh policy regime of China is strongly affected by significant government intervention.

Many interesting areas have come on to the scene for additional research. Foremost, one can develop the VAR structure so that it includes further variables of influence. Depending on the availability of data, enhancing the quantity of currency pairs shows potential to test for the explanatory power related to the order flow in a cross section. Moreover, one can split the sample into many sub-periods depending of shifting of the regime in the Chinese exchange rate policy, so as to examine the time-dependent order flow effects on the exchange rates formation in the foreign exchange market of China.

2. The advantage of influence of exchange rate movements on the export trade in China



In recent years, along with its booming export trade, China's holding of foreign reserves has climbed at an impressive rate as its demand for U.S. securities increased as well. Speculation has been growing that these developments are part of China's effort to keep the value of its currency weak to help bolster its export trade and economic performance. For the moment, in the United States, in spite of a strong surge in the short-term interest rate, especially since mid-2004, the long-term interest rate has declined or stayed low, which has helped to boost the spending (particularly in the housing sector) and, consequently, has caused an economic explosion through the latter half of 2007. The divergence in the long and short-term interest rates has led to an increase in the interest in the relationship between the value of the Chinese currency, the Chinese purchases of the united states securities and the short-term as well as long-term interest rates of the United States.

3. The disadvantage of influence of the exchange rate movements on the export trade in China



USA is forcing China to get considerable measures to appreciate its currency. And for proper revaluation of Yuan the appreciation is the main step (Goldstein and Lardy 2003b) and it should not be a slow process (Kroeber 2007, Goldstein and Lardy 2003a, 2003b, 2005). As the value of Yuan has been settled 25%-40% lower as compare to US. So China have to appreciate her currency from 20%-40%, which would result in the depreciation of the US dollar from 20%-40%. If China kept on showing this behavior persistently regarding the floating exchange rate system it would have effect on the global exchange rate systems operations and on the policy of various other currencies and on the global trade activities. It would adversely affect the market of US, Japan and Europe (Goldstein 2007). The US is also being helped by IMF and WTO in this aspect. If China would not appreciate its currency WTO will pass the order to US to increase the excise duties on products imported from China.

4. Some suggestions of choosing an exchange rate for China's export trade



Fixed exchange rate which is being adopted by China is altering the mechanism of the markets. Though this helps to increase the exports, but people of other nations inclined to buy it not because of their quality mostly but because of their less cost. Therefore, China has kept its goods synthetically cheap, which is appalling for the overseas competitors. Different nations of the world are of the view that they still do not find any such method to letting countries stop from increasing their trade by interference in the exchange rate mechanism. USA is of the view that China should let market forces to determine the exchange rate of country, but Kaltsky, (2010) is of the view that if the market forces didn't aid the US credit crunch to abolish, then in what way can it give employment and lessen the deficit.

Recent strategy of China lead it to the massive foreign reserves, which if otherwise can be invested to the education, healthcare and for the civil welfare purposes. From this strategy of China the common people of China suffers. It shows that China doesn't desire to take suitable steps to reinforce its banking sector. Inflation is expected to rise in the upcoming 20 years. So, investors of China have to purchase the securities on premium and the return they are having is in dollar (of lower value). But this strategy is in their national interest which comes first.

5. Summary

China has been the world largest exporter of the world. Even though there has been a rapid rise in its exports but it has been at the cost of other countries' market shares. China's exchange rate policies are important worldwide. Even for those countries which are linked to China through production chains, mainly East-Asian countries. According to researches carried out on Chinese exchange rate movemnts, Chinese exports have been motivated to a large extent by increasing demand. Several studies report that imports have also fallen instead of rising. When examining the imports more closely, one notices that it is primarily imports from other Asian countries that decrease when the renminbi appreciates. China's export goods are becoming more of a complement to the production of goods in other Asian economies than a substitute. In spite of the desertion of the US Dollar peg and the consequent build up of the infrastructure of the financial market, the renminbi's stability against the American dollar has been maintained. China formally changed its exchange rate setting procedure; it has largely rebuked or sidestepped American pressure to allow the currency to appreciate more rapidly.

To examine the Chinese exchange rate behavior with relation to its long-run equilibrium and short-run dynamics, we make a VAR framework in order to do estimation. The VAR model is built to test for exchange rate changes. VAR has its exclusive advantages as a modeling framework but difficulties arise in determining the suitable lag length for the system variables. Criteria method strikes a balance between reduction of RSS and increase of penalty term.

This research is concerned with the short-term dynamics and long-term determinants of the Chinese exchange rate, with a specific focus on the function of cumulative order flow in the entire process. China's holding of foreign reserves has climbed at an impressive rate. USA is forcing China to get considerable measures to appreciate its currency. China's massive foreign reserves may well be invested to the education, healthcare and for the civil welfare purposes.

Chapter 5: Conclusion and Recommendation



1. Conclusion

The entire text thus far has been based upon a solid background of Chinese exchange rate movement and the evolution of the exchange rate movements on the foreign trade in particular. It also contains fluctuations of exchange rates in a detailed manner which gives us an idea about the trends as well as the constraints involved in the Chinese exchange rate movement and RMB exchange rate movements and the corresponding export trade situation.

Chinese exports have been motivated to a large extent by increasing demand. Several studies report that imports have also fallen instead of rising. When examining the imports more closely, one notices that it is primarily imports from other Asian countries that decrease when the renminbi appreciates. China's export goods are becoming more of a complement to the production of goods in other Asian economies than a substitute. The entire text is concerned with the short-term dynamics and long-term determinants of the Chinese exchange rate, with a specific focus on the function of cumulative order flow in the entire process. Employing an inventive method devoid of all transaction record details, we build a measure of everyday order flow in the Chinese exchange to get to know the surplus demand and pressure in the foreign exchange market of China. A new variable known as the country risk premium, is also added in the variable space, alongside the exchange rate, interest rate differential and order flow. To examine the Chinese exchange rate behavior with relation to its long-run equilibrium and short-run dynamics, we make a VAR framework in order to do estimation. We come to know that cumulative order flow is co-incorporated with China's foreign exchange rates.

Many interesting areas have come on to the scene for additional research. Foremost, one can develop the VAR structure so that it includes further variables of influence. Depending on the availability of data, enhancing the quantity of currency pairs shows potential to test for the explanatory power related to the order flow in a cross section. Moreover, one can split the sample into many sub-periods depending of shifting of the regime in the Chinese exchange rate policy, so as to examine the time-dependent order flow effects on the exchange rates formation in the foreign exchange market of China.

It appears as if the government involvement in the budding foreign exchange market might be a decisive factor. In a nut-shell, this research reveals the long term co-association between the examined variables, comprising of order flow, the macro influences proxy as well as the exchange rates. The short run dynamics reveal the fact that the fresh policy regime of China is strongly affected by significant government intervention.

2. Recommendation for further research

Survey and research on currency invoicing choice must be carried out in addition to the research on criteria for the invoicing decision made by firms. The literature would signify exchange rate volatility, market share, size of the economy, product differentiation and financial supply volatility which are noteworthy factors in influencing the invoicing choice. An exchange rate volatility as well as money supply volatility would both suggest the U.S. dollar to still be a suitable choice of invoice currency for Chinese firms.

Researches in to the latest exchange rate strategies being employed by China must be undertaken which could be extended to signify the Chinese interests behind its devotion to fixed exchange rates.

A very interesting research may be carried out on the impact of Yuan devaluation on American exports, imports as well as jobs.
Researches and surveys may be undertaken in to the steps being taken by America in this regard in order to protect its interests from the increasing impact of the Yuan.

The subject of the chances of euro in playing an increasing role as the invoicing choice of Chinese firms can be a very informative topic for further research in to the field of Chinese exchange rate movement as well.

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